The main factor affecting the intensive shrinkage of glaciers in the Akshyirak massif is global climate warming

Due to the wide public response caused by the amendments to the Law of the Kyrgyz Republic "On the Water Code of the Kyrgyz Republic", the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Processing and Land Improvement of the Kyrgyz Republic informs the following.

According to the Catalogue of Glaciers of the USSR, compiled in the 50-60 years of the 20th century, there were 6771 glaciers in the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic with a total area of 8009 km² and a volume of 493 km³. The indicated glaciers were 4.1% of the total area of the republic.

Dynamics of glaciation of the Akshyirak massif (which includes the Davydov and Lysiy glaciers) in the Issyk-Kul oblast of the Kyrgyz Republic. According to M. B. Dyurgerov (2010), the area of glaciation of the Tien Shan mountain system in 1960-2006 is decreased by almost 17% - from 15,416 km² in 1960 to 12,815 km² in 2006. The volume of glaciers in the same period is decreased by 219 km³.

The table gives information on the area of glaciation of the Akshyirak massif in the period from 1950 to 2013 according to different authors.

Table. Area of glaciation of the Akshyirak massif in different time periods

The shrinkage in the area of glaciation of the Akshyirak massif due to direct technogenic impact is about 1.5 km² or 6.8% of the total area of glaciation shrinkage in 2003-2013.

The area of the glacier Davydov according to the Catalog of Glaciers of the USSR - 11.6 km² or 0.145% of the total area of glaciers of our republic. According to the data (Aizen et al., 2007), the rate of linear recession of the Davydov glacier in 1932-1943 was 53 m/year, in 1943-1955 - 23 m/year, in 1955-1977 - 5 m/year, in 1977-1995 - 14 m/year, and in 1995-2003 - 24 m/year. From 1932 to 1995, i.e. in the period of total absence of production activity of the Kumtor mine, the Davydov glacier recessed by 1200 m, or by an average of 19 m/year.

Consequently, the main factor affecting the intensive shrinkage of glaciers in the Akshyirak massif, located at a certain distance from the Kumtor gold deposit, is global climate warming.

Due to re-stocking from the tongue part of the Davydov glacier and the overlapping (reservation) of the empty rock, the conservation of the water-ice resources contained in it has occurred. This can lead to a decrease in the flow rate of the River Kumtor is approximately 3.5 million m³/year, which is about 0.11% of the average annual flow of the river Naryn on the Naryn city stream gauge and 0.03% on the Uch-Terek stream gauge. 

The possible reaction of the Davydov glacier to the artificial removal of its tongue was simulated (Aizin, Chugunov, 1989). The results of a comprehensive study of the glacier in the Soviet period were summarized in the monograph "The Tien Shan Glaciation" (Dyurgerov et al., 1995).